{"id":11898,"date":"2021-12-08T18:36:26","date_gmt":"2021-12-09T01:36:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.powder7.com\/ski-blog\/?p=11898"},"modified":"2022-01-07T10:55:43","modified_gmt":"2022-01-07T17:55:43","slug":"low-snow-year-should-we-panic","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.powder7.com\/ski-blog\/low-snow-year-should-we-panic\/","title":{"rendered":"Low and Slow Early Season Snowpack: Should You Panic?"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Low snow right off the bat isn’t the most inspiring start to the season.<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

It\u2019s no secret that our snowpack this year has been a bit slim. As I type, we are currently looking at roughly 48% of our average snowpack<\/a>. If you are like some of us here at the shop, that number might startle you a bit. In between all our snow dances and wishes to Ullr, we are asking 4.8 billion dollar question<\/a>: when (or even will) we ever get snow again?\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Brown peaks in December aren’t what we hope to see in December.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The short-term answer is yes, of course we will get some snow again. It may not feel like it, with our sunny mountain biking temperatures right now, but it\u2019ll come. There\u2019s even some in the forecast here in Colorado. But the long-term answer is a bit more complicated. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But first, a bit of history.<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n

We\u2019ve definitely had slow starts to seasons before that turned out okay. Taking a peek at the historical snowpack averages<\/a> in Colorado from the USDA, you can see we had a few years with numbers all over the place. Some funny years to take a look at: 1990, 2000, and 2013. Those years had relatively slower starts, and then picked up a bit in the spring. You can also see a few years where the snowpack starts out way above average, then drops off rapidly mid-winter (see 2002). So, it\u2019s nothing new for our snowpack to vary wildly throughout the season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

There is a reason this year might feel a bit different. We were pushing to break the record for the slowest start in thirty years, but the upcoming storm will just stop us from breaking that record. It has been particularly dry, especially down here on the Front Range. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Not to mention, this is a La Nina year, which typically brings drier and warmer temperatures. Matt Makens over at Weather5280<\/a> notes how some La Nina years turn up with a decent amount of snow, and others stay much drier throughout the season (see 2018). So, we’ll have to stay tuned to see how the rest of this 2022 season turns out here. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
We’re coming alarmingly close to record-low snowpack so far this season.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The big question: will we continue to have dry, low snow years?<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

It can feel like a pretty bad outlook for our future winters with such a slow start, not to mention wildfire-ridden summers and climate change. But luckily, it seems like there’s good news looking long term.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Forecasting wizard Joel Gratz over at OpenSnow<\/a> points out “there’s no long-term trend in snowfall and precipitation. There is a long-term trend in temperatures (they are rising). Putting these two together, there could be a trend for less snow at lower elevations (it’ll melt due to warmer temperatures) and on the shoulder seasons (when it’s typically warmer in spring and fall)”. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This seems like relatively positive news for our future ski seasons! As long as we keep the cool weather and snow up high, there’s hope for our winters after all. Although, this could definitely mean shorter seasons, with less successful skiing in the fall<\/a>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Good news: A slow start doesn’t mean we’re doomed.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div>\n\n\n\n

Despite all this, <\/strong>the snowfall so far this year definitely has an impact for backcountry skiing.<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Colorado is notorious for our persistently unstable snowpack, and this year is no different. The nature of our climate here (sunny days in between storms) really messes with our snowpack. With a big storm up front and a long dry spell in the last few weeks, all the old snow that is on the ground has gotten quite faceted and unstable. According to CAIC, once new snow falls on top of that weak layer, we can see more avalanche problems. Even though untracked pow sounds oh-so enticing, always check the forecast<\/a> and make good decisions before you head out. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

But there\u2019s still good news (for us Coloradoans)!<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Compared to other western states with folks hungry to get out skiing, we are actually doing pretty well. Oregon, California, and Washington’s snowpack averages<\/a> are lower than ours right now. According to Joel, since we’ve got higher elevations here in Colorado, we might hold more snow than other areas around the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That being said, Snoqualmie Pass up in Washington<\/a> is expecting to get 70 inches in the next five days. Seems like the best plan to chase pow is simply to hop on the #vanlife train, and move into a mobile winter adventure vehicle. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Are you prepared to shred the upcoming pow? Take a peek at our favorite big mountain skis<\/a> for 2022. <\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

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